My Night of Many Emotions | Forum

Topic location: Forum home » General » General Chat
Abbey Pendleton

Last night was one of several emotions for me personally, all of which happened to coincide using the Phillies-Mets game. Johan Santana Jordan Poyer Jersey took on Phillies newcomer Joe Blanton inside a contest that would eventually result in a sole who owns first place for the time being. While my night got off for an exciting bang thanks to a Jayson Werth RBI single within the first inning, it quickly turned sour once the Mets tied it up and pulled ahead thanks to a blown call from the umpire two run homer in the ever-so-torrid Carlos Delgado. The deflation quickly shifted to awe as Santana once again just cruised with the high-powered offense from the Phillies. Eventually that awe turned back to some type of sadne s as Ramon Castro put into the Mets lead, before pulling an entire 180 to elation because the Phillies scored six runs in the ninth inning once Johan was taken out.

After the game, however, the baseball fan and analyst within me angered at the audacity of some mainstream writers to suggest, in a lot of words, Johan doesnt have that it factor anymore, or that he isnt nearly as good and appears to be on the decline. And the main reasons for these opinions stem from last years 15-13 W-L record which years mere 8-7. From reading a few of these Tajae Sharpe Jersey articles or hearing some Baseball Tonight analysts what you know already that Johan would struggle to cut it because the #3 option of all teams.

Frequent Fangraphs commenter Bill Baer wrote an excellent piece at Crashburn Alley that echoed my feelings last night throughout the game, that Johan continues to be incredibly unlucky this season, much like Phillies ace Cole Hamels. My feeling was when Santanas record was 11-3 or even 10-4 that many people would feel very differently about his performance this season. But then I looked at his numbers and calculated his projection within the remainder to determine what his end of season statistics might look like and my anger that he has lost something based on his W-L now use surprise.

See, even though his record doesnt do his season justice Brittan Golden Jersey , Santana does appear to have lost some semblance of effectivene s. Entering this year his projection required around a 3.26 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 2.24 BB/9, 9.23 K/9, along with a 4.12 K/BB. Here are his 2008 numbers, his projection over the remainder, and just what his overall numbers would be should this projection hold true:

2008 to date: 3.75 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 2.47 BB/9, 7.79 K/9, 3.16 K/BBSecond Half: 3.45 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 2.41 BB/9, 8.58 K/9, 3.57 K/BB2008 Overall: 3.64 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 2.44 BB/9, 8.08 K/9, 3.31 K/BB

If his season winds up like this, it might mark his worst Jason Spriggs Jersey K/9, BB/9, WHIP, K/BB, and BAA since becoming a full-time starter in 2004. Dont confuse this with ineffectivene s, however, as he continues to be very productive this season, ranking within the NLs top in several pertinent categories. As I mentioned above, if his record were 11-3 or something like that along those lines most of these conversations would cease to exist since most fans are often quite content in believing a pitcher having a record so good is impervious to luck.

In his seven lo ses this year, Johan has pitched 45.2 innings and surrendered just 17 earned runs, great for a 3.35 ERA. Thats an incredibly solid ERA for games by which he received a lo s. Jake Fisher Jersey In these same seven games, he has received only nine runs of support. Nine. Thats 1.77 RS/9 during these games. Of course hes likely to lose a few of these if his team fails to score any runs. While I was shocked to determine his strikeout numbers decline and baserunners increase, he is still among the elite within my eyes and also the eyes of numerous others, Im sure. If someone desires to poke holes in the production this season it might make much more sense to note a few of the aforementioned numbers, not to say his record is really a disappointing 8-7, especially when considering how good he's pitched in some of those lo ses and how little support he's received.

He may not be the 2004 Johan and the true talent level may have changed a bit, but he's still a darned good pitcher.