2015 Trade Value- 50 8211 41 | Forum

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Abbey Pendleton
Abbey Pendleton Aug 12 '17

With the introduction taken care of, lets enter into their email list. Well do 10 guys per day, overall with the top 10 on Friday. Today, well start with the bubble guys who made the cut, but bear in mind, the gap between players in this tier is very small, and you can reasonably argue to rearrange them in just about any order you wanted. Along with a good number of the guys who mi sed the cut are very similar in value to those 10, so dont get too upset over a guy appearing in this group versus another guy who had been a respectable mention. These guys are all very good, however this is the area of the list in which the actual ranking matters the least.

In addition to the players biographical information, Ive added a listing of his contract situation, and as a brand new feature this year, Dan Szymborski has provided me with five year ZIPS forecasts for all of the players out there, which Ive listed with their 2016 projection. Of course, not every player listed is in check for the next five years some are locked up well beyond that time frame but this should offer you a pretty decent look at what a player is expected to do both in the short-term and the longer-term, based on Dans forecasting system.

For anything details, Im only displaying future obligations beginning with their Frank Zombo Jersey 2016 salary. Ive tried to make sure that they are as accurate as can be, but they were also collected manually, so there must be some mistakes; there are many weird clauses and options that make aggregating all this information particularly annoying. Also, were not including things like All-Star bonuses or incentive escalators, as this is meant to give more of a big picture view than be a precise accounting of the exact cost of a future player. A few hundred thousand here and there wont alter the rankings.

Also, keep in mind that some players have contracts that provide them a guaranteed minimum, but they are also in a position to opt-into arbitration when they're eligible. This really is pretty common with prominent international signings, and so some of these guys will probably earn more than their contracts currently call for, but Ive still just included the guaranteed minimum later on salary commitment because we dont know for sure that theyre likely to opt into arbitration yet.

Finally, weve included as well a nifty little graphic at the end that visualizes many of the information contained below, so if you need to see the projections and contract status for everyone together, you can aquire a review of that at the end. The chart is out five years, so some players have additional value beyond whats displayed, but it should provide you with a good summary of what each player offers moving forward.

Alright, on to the list.

#50: Jorge Soler, OF, ChicagoControlled Through: 2020Guaranteed Dollars: $18 million2016 ZIPS WAR: +2.4Five year ZIPS WAR: +12.6Last Year: Unranked

Solers first season because the Cubs starting right fielder hasnt gone that well, with injuries and a surprisingly low power output limiting him to more potential than performance. But Soler remains one of the most intriguing young power hitters in the game, and a few hundred poor at-bats doesnt wipe away the tools and the minor league performance. Hes still just 23, and while his contact problems might keep him from ever just as one elite player, he appears like a quality excellent regular for that near future. And that he po se ses the skillset that teams will overpay to acquire, as young middle-of-the-order hitters are not really in the marketplace anymore.

Soler Dexter McCluster Jersey is one of the guys who are able to opt into arbitration, so he will probably make greater than $18 million over the next five seasons, but despite a few arbitration raises, hes still likely to be a substantial bargain. The Cubs po se s a ton of premium pieces, so its easy to overlook Soler within the crowd, but hed be the best young talent of all clubs in baseball.

#49: Joe Panik, 2B, San FrancicsoControlled Through: 2020Guaranteed Dollars: None2016 ZIPS WAR: +2.7Five year ZIPS WAR: +14.5Last Year: Unranked

Perhaps the player least like Soler in all of baseball, Panik is really a low-tools guy that has simply forced his way onto this list with a remarkable performance since dealing with the large leagues. With elite contact rates and a steady stream of line drives, Panik has been a +5 WAR player in his first 158 games in the majors, and while there remains good reasons to be skeptical he can sustain his 2015 power spike, he doesnt have to in order to remain an excellent a set. An underpowered Panik still does enough to become an above average second baseman, and when he is doing keep running an ISO close to .150, hes Matt Carpenter 2.0.

With two more pre-arb years and three arbitration years along with a skillset that wont accrue huge arbitration paychecks even when he gets there Panik is produce a ton of value for the Giants over the next five seasons. Hitting on guys such as this is the reason why the Giants keep winning, and while Panik may have the cheapest ceiling a sociated with a guy on this list, hes a high-floor guy at a very low cost, and hes in the middle of forcing everyone to re-evaluate what his ceiling might actually be.

#48: Jonathan Lucroy, C, MilwaukeeControlled Through: 2017Guaranteed Dollars: $9.25 million2016 ZIPS WAR: +4.3Five year ZIPS WAR: +18.2Last Year: #14

A year ago, Lucroy was probably the most valuable trade chips hanging around, however with a contract that is getting closer to expiration along with a lack of power despite returning from those with disability list, hes le s than the trade chip he was 12 months ago. Lucroy remains one of the best catchers hanging around and if you give him full credit for the estimates of his framing value, hes probably worth more than the projections suggest and is signed to a ridiculously cheap contract, however it covers just two more seasons, and his current performance would cause some potential suitors to take a bit of a pause before putting a ma sive offer on the table.

But even with his current struggles, Lucroy is about as valuable anyone with 2 yrs of team control remaining gets. Theres just one other potential 2017 free agent on the list (and youll see him very soon), therefore the slide from last years ranking is mainly about the fact that 1/3 of his contract continues to be consumed since this list was published last summer. He remains a highly valuable a set, but his value is just diminishing as he gets closer and closer to the disposable agent market.

#47: Carlos Martinez, SP, St. LouisControlled Through: 2019Guaranteed Dollars: None2016 ZIPS WAR: +2.9Five year ZIPS WAR: +17.3Last Year: Unranked

After an uninspiring performance in the bullpen, based largely on some real problems against left-handed hitters, I was among many skeptics who didnt think Martinez would are a high-quality starter. Upon taking on the bigger workload, however, hes raised Daniel Munyer Jersey his strikeout and groundball rates while determining how to get lefties out, and today appears like among the finest young starters in all of baseball. The command still needs work, and that he must show he can sustain this over a full season, but the early returns are quite excellent, and also the Cardinals look pretty shrewd for refusing to include him inside a deal for a veteran within the winter.

His amount of time in the bullpen means that hes running lower on controllable years than the usual normal 23 years old starter, but the Cardinals have his rights for an additional pair pre-arbitration season and all sorts of three of his arb years. If he keeps this degree of performance up, those arbitration years could get on the pricey side, but of course, St. Louis will happily pay him so long as he keeps pitching like he's now. Martinezs succe s is among the major causes the team has kept winning even without Adam Wainwright, and hes probably moved himself from the trade chip category and squarely in to the teams core group to build around.

#46: Todd Frazier, 3B, CincinnatiControlled Through: 2017Guaranteed Dollars: $7.5 million2016 ZIPS WAR: +4.6Five year ZIPS WAR: +18.2Last Year: Unranked

One from the breakout stars of 2015, Fraziers first half power surge has turned him from a good player into among the games premier sluggers. And considering that he doesnt strike out much for any power hitter and plays quality defense at third base, the overall value he provides makes him legitimately one of the best players in baseball.

But like Lucroy the only real other 2017 free agent about this list the fact that the Reds would simply be selling 2 yrs following this one somewhat limits his value. Even though he pre-sold his next arbitration year for $7.5 million (a regrettable move, in hindsight) so hell remain affordable despite this breakout, his final arbitration year will likely bring a substantial paycheck, so theres really only one crazy bargain season left before he starts to get expensive. And since Frazier emerged like a little bit of an older rookie, hes already 29, so hes not quite a future building block anymore. Hes a present value play, and he has enough to generate a large amount of interest, but the limited control many age push him down further on this list than simply his 2015 performance might suggest.

#45: Dallas Keuchel, SP, HoustonControlled Through: 2018Guaranteed Dollars: None2016 ZIPS WAR: +3.8Five year ZIPS WAR: +17.3Last Year: Unranked

Keuchels maturation right into a dominant starter continues to be something to behold, but Mitch Morse Jersey given his performance because the start of last year, hes clearly earned the #1 starter label. Hes e sentially become a left-handed Brandon Webb, mixing an absurd groundball rate with solid walk and strikeout numbers, so even if you not ever look at his stuff and think hes an ace, hes certainly pitching like one.

But like a performance-over-tools guy, theres going to become a little bit of a discount when compared with guys who were projected as stars based on their physical abilities. And with just his three arbitration years left after this season the last couple of which arent going to be super cheap, given his 2015 breakout Keuchel probably wouldnt bring back the kind of return that his performance would merit. But Im sure the Astros will be perfectly happy to just keep in Houston anyway.

#44: Jason Kipnis, 2B, ClevelandControlled Through: 2020Guaranteed Dollars: $45.5 million2016 ZIPS WAR: +3.8Five year ZIPS WAR: +17.7Last Year: Unranked

Kipnis up-and-down career is currently in a peak, as hes found his power stroke while cutting back down on his strikeouts in a remarkable first half, answering most of the questions raised by a poor 2014 performance. Once again, Kipnis appears like among the best offensive middle infielders hanging around.

And since the Indians locked him up a few years ago, hes going to remain a good deal for the following few years, as well as when his contract begins to escalate in price, the deal remains pretty friendly to the organization, because the 2020 season is a team option, giving additional upside with little risk. But Kipnis is another 28 year old second baseman with questionable defensive skills, so by the end of his deal, he might be an underpowered corner outfielder. Given his age and skills, hes probably better viewed as a medium-term a set than a long-term building block, but he offers a large amount of present value at a low price, and if the Indians chose to put him on the market, thered be considered a very long listing of suitors.

#43: Yan Gomes, C, ClevelandControlled Through: 2021Guaranteed Dollars: $22 million2016 ZIPS WAR: +3.9Five year ZIPS WAR: +16.8Last Year: #50

After a breakout season in 2014, Gomes mi sed the very first couple months of 2015 with a knee injury suffered during sprain training, and hasnt looked entirely healthy even since his return; the Indians certainly werent planning on him hitting .216/.234/.327 this season. So, like Lucroy, his 2015 performance is dragging down his value, but there are still lots of good reasons to think that he remains a properly excellent big league player, especially when his work behind the plate is factored in.

And his contract makes him an amazing bargain despite the offensive struggles. Hes due just $20 million in salary within the next 4 years, then has two team options for another $20 million combined in a long time five and 6; even when hes nothing more than a part-time player by that point, he most likely will be worth $10 million annually, given baseballs economy. For a team with a limited budget, Gomes is a highly valuable a set, providing on-field value in a very minimal cost, so even if he never gets back to his 2014 peak, he remains a very valuable part of the Indians future.

#42: Byron Buxton, OF, MinnesotaControlled Through: 2021Guaranteed Dollars: None2016 ZIPS WAR: +2.7Five year ZIPS WAR: +17.6Last Year: #38

If Buxton could remain healthy, hed be ranked significantly higher than this, as both scouts and ZIPS see a star in the making. But because the injuries still stack up, its becoming fair to question the way the lost development time will affect him, and whether hell ever play enough to live up to the substantial hype. The various tools exist for Buxton to be a high-level player, and then any team seeking to the future would love to have him for his upside alone. But he is also a high risk a set, with increased bust potential than simply about anyone else youll find in this series.

But with six years of team control remaining, three of them in the league minimum, Buxton doesnt have to be a star right away to justify his placement here. Despite an adjustment period, he offers substantial long-term rewards, and hes close enough to providing real value within the big leagues that teams could justify paying with the nose to get him. Its a serious risk/reward play, but when the reward is this high, so is the cost.

#41: Jose Quintana, SP, ChicagoControlled Through: 2020Guaranteed Dollars: $23.25 million2016 ZIPS WAR: +4.0Five year ZIPS WAR: +19.2Last Year: #37

Quintana remains one of the more remarkable stories in baseball, because the White Sox signed him as a minor league free agent after the 2011 season, after which helped him develop into the games most consistent starters. Like Keuchel, this is performance-over-stuff, and hell never blow anyone away with what he throws, but were on year four of Major League hitters the inability to figure him out, so at this time, its pretty clear that hes carrying out a lot of things right.

Unlike Keuchel, Quintana isnt a frontline guy, and in all likelihood never will be; hes maybe more akin to someone like Doug Fister. But theres no problem with steady, solid, above-average performances, and the extension Quintana signed this past year implies that hes going to make heavily reduced salaries the following three years, plus the White Sox get team options on what can have been his first couple of free agent years. There isnt nece sarily star potential here, but he Patrick Mahomes II Jersey s a very good pitcher at very good prices, and every team in baseball would love to have Quintana in their rotation.